Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Significant Expansion in Bed Capacity Expected to Drive Double-Digit EBITDA Growth: Over the next 18 months, Select Medical plans to increase its bed count by over 30%. Due to the joint venture model, these new facilities mature quickly, and the company expects double-digit EBITDA growth in '26 and '27. Specifically, they anticipate double-digit EBITDA growth in the teens range from the inpatient rehab division starting in '25 due to the new beds coming online.
- Operational Improvements and Productivity Gains in Outpatient Rehab Division Leading to Increased Margins: The outpatient rehab division showed a 7% increase in revenue and 18% increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q4. Net revenue per visit increased from $100 to $102 due to better commercial rates despite Medicare cuts. The company also implemented technology improvements in January, which they expect will lead to additional improvements in therapists' productivity, supporting double-digit EBITDA growth in '25 and '26 for the outpatient rehab division.
- Leverage Expected to Decrease, Improving Financial Position: After the Concentra spin-off, Select Medical's leverage is expected to remain at 3.0 to 3.1 times in 2025 but decrease to well below that in 2026 and beyond. This reduction in leverage enhances the company's financial flexibility and positions it well for future growth.
- Start-up losses and integration costs from new facilities are suppressing margins in the Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility (IRF) segment. The company is increasing its bed count by over 30% over the next 18 months , and these expansions are expected to cause a decline of about 20 basis points in consolidated EBITDA margin in 2025. This could negatively impact profitability in the near term.
- The Long-Term Acute Care (LTAC) segment is expected to have slow growth, with management predicting low single-digit growth. This sluggish performance in a significant segment could weigh on overall company growth prospects.
- Elevated leverage levels: The company expects to maintain a leverage ratio of around 3.0 to 3.1 times in 2025 due to high development activity, with an expectation to decrease beyond 2026. Elevated leverage may increase financial risk and limit financial flexibility.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
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Total Revenue | Approximately 7% QoQ decline from $1,761.2M in Q3 2024 to –$122.6M in Q4 2024 | Total Revenue experienced a dramatic drop in Q4 2024 largely due to the reclassification effects from the Concentra spin‐off, which shifted significant revenue streams out of SEM’s consolidated reporting compared to the solid revenue contributions across all segments in Q3 2024. |
Adjustments for Non-Cash Items | Increased to $171,108K in Q4 2024 | The surge in non‑cash adjustments reflects significant changes such as increased equity earnings from unconsolidated subsidiaries and additional non‑cash charges, contrasting with comparatively lower adjustments in the previous period. |
Stock-Based Compensation | Rose to $61,271K in Q4 2024 | The notable increase is primarily driven by accelerated vesting and award modifications—actions linked to the Concentra spin‑off—which amplified expense recognition compared to prior quarters where vesting and grant activity were more moderate. |
Capital Expenditures | Dropped dramatically from approximately $50.7M in Q3 2024 to $16 in Q4 2024 | The substantial reduction in CapEx indicates a strategic shift in spending, with fewer investments in property and equipment in Q4 2024 as many development projects were either completed or temporarily on hold, in stark contrast to the expansion-driven investments in Q3 2024. |
Net Change in Cash | Turned negative at –$115,088K in Q4 2024 | After a strong cash increase in Q3 2024, Q4 2024 saw a reversal due to major financing outflows—including significant debt repayments and changes in financing activities associated with the spin‑off—resulting in a steep downturn in the net cash position. |
Cash and Cash Equivalents | Fell from $191,468K in Q3 2024 to $59,694K in Q4 2024 | The decline in liquidity is a direct outcome of the negative net cash change and substantial cash outflows tied to financing adjustments and lower operating inflows in Q4 2024, contrasting with the robust cash buildup seen in the prior quarter. |
Long-Term Debt | Reduced from $3,098,957K in Q3 2024 to $1,691,546K in Q4 2024 | Long-term debt decreased markedly as debt repayments were accelerated using proceeds from the Concentra IPO, coupled with amendments that reclassified Concentra’s debt out of SEM’s consolidated figures, a significant shift from the higher leverage maintained in Q3 2024. |
Shareholders’ Equity | Increased modestly to $1,986,928K in Q4 2024 | Despite other declines, equity grew modestly driven by robust net income and capital contributions from Concentra IPO proceeds, which offset the impact of cash dividends and share repurchases—continuing a positive trend from previous periods. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Revenue | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $5.4 billion to $5.6 billion | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $520 million to $540 million | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EPS | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $1.09 to $1.19 | no prior guidance |
Capital Expenditures | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $160 million to $200 million | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Facility Expansion & Bed Capacity Growth | Q1–Q3 calls consistently discussed adding new hospitals and bed capacity—in Q1 new hospital openings and a plan to add 537 beds , Q2 detailed opening new facilities with 449 additional beds and a critical illness recovery hospital , and Q3 highlighted new inpatient rehab hospitals and joint venture deals. | In Q4, 94 inpatient rehab beds were added (including a 50‐bed facility in Oklahoma City) with detailed plans for adding 481 more beds by 2026, representing the most active development phase in the company’s history. | Consistent aggressive expansion with more concrete and ambitious plans in Q4. However, integration challenges from rapid growth have begun to weigh on margins. |
Outpatient Rehabilitation Efficiency & Technology Innovation | Q2 emphasized scheduling improvements and increasing daily patient loads ; Q3 highlighted an imminent “game changer” technology release to boost clinical efficiency. (Q1 had no specific mention.) | Q4 showcased strong performance improvements in outpatient revenue and EBITDA, with a technology rollout in January contributing to improved clinical productivity and robust margin gains. | Ongoing focus on technology and efficiency; sentiment remains positive as innovations mature, with a stronger operational impact noted in Q4. |
Financial Leverage Management & Borrowing Cost Trends | Q1 outlined high leverage with prepayments and plans for credit management ; Q2 described a net leverage of 4.13x with expectations of higher borrowing costs due to rising SOFR ; Q3 highlighted reduced consolidated debt and improved leverage metrics. | Q4 reported a refinancing of $1.6 billion, including new term loans and extended credit facility maturities, which lowered interest expense (from $40.3 million to $28.6 million) and improved leverage ratios. | Steady improvement in financial leverage through proactive refinancing; borrowing costs are trending lower with a strategic focus on debt reduction. |
LTAC Segment Performance & Growth Strategy | Q1 was bullish with strong margins, high-acuity patient mix, and plans to add 70 LTAC beds ; Q2 showed steady revenue increases and margin improvements ; Q3 reported modest gains with occupancy and revenue up. | In Q4, the LTAC segment maintained stable margins and is expected to grow at low single-digit rates in 2025, reflecting a more cautious and steady outlook compared to earlier, more aggressive growth projections. | Shift from aggressive to cautious growth—LTAC performance remains solid but the outlook has become more measured, focusing on stability. |
Critical Illness Recovery Performance & Cost Control | Q1 highlighted robust revenue (up 10%) and dramatic adjusted EBITDA improvements with strong cost control (e.g. 6% reduction in SW&B ratios) ; Q2 showed further margin gains and reduced cost ratios ; Q3 reported continued revenue strength despite start-up losses. | Q4 continued to show revenue and EBITDA growth with improved occupancy, yet integration and start-up costs in new facilities resulted in a 6% decline in adjusted EBITDA margins (from 25.5% previously to 21.2%). | Consistent strong performance overall, though Q4’s integration costs have introduced short-term margin pressures despite underlying operational efficiency. |
Labor Cost Stabilization & Staffing Efficiency | Q1 demonstrated significant improvements with reductions in RN agency costs (–23%) and lower incentive bonuses, dropping SW&B ratios from 56.2% to 52.9% ; Q2 and Q3 continued to see decreases in agency utilization and incentive expenses. | Q4 maintained the trend with a further decrease in SW&B (down to 56.9% from 57.6% in the prior year) and a 15% reduction in nursing sign-on/incentive bonuses, alongside steady agency nurse utilization at 14%. | Continuing positive trend—labor costs remain well-managed with ongoing efficiency improvements, reflecting successful operational initiatives. |
Payer Mix, Reimbursement Pressures & Demand Shifts | Q1 provided detailed discussion on outpatient declines in net revenue per visit (from $101 to $99) due to changes in Medicare fee schedules and shifts in payer mix ; Q2 and Q3 had limited or no dedicated discussion on this topic. | Q4 offered only peripheral mentions, noting that in outpatient care, improvements in commercial rates helped offset declines in Medicare reimbursements, leading to a modest increase in net revenue per visit (from $100 to $102). | Reduced emphasis—the topic is less front-and-center in Q4, suggesting that earlier reimbursement challenges have been largely integrated into broader revenue dynamics with mitigated concerns. |
Integration Costs & Start-Up Losses from New Facilities | Q1 mentioned modest start-up losses in critical illness recovery ($2.2 million) with no talk of integration costs. Q2 saw higher losses ($3–3.6 million) in both inpatient rehab and critical illness divisions. Q3 reported notable start-up losses in inpatient rehab and critical illness, but with less focus on integration expenses. | Q4 focused on significant integration costs impacting the inpatient rehab division: start-up losses and integration expenses led to a 6% decline in EBITDA margins, with additional challenges from hurricane-driven referral drops, even though facilities are expected to mature rapidly. | Worsening short-term cost pressures—integration costs and start-up losses have increasingly affected margins in Q4, highlighting growing near-term operational challenges despite long-term growth potential. |
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EBITDA Growth Outlook
Q: What's the EBITDA growth outlook over the next 3 years?
A: Management expects double-digit EBITDA growth in the teens for inpatient rehab starting from 2025 due to new beds coming online. They anticipate low single-digit growth in LTAC. Outpatient rehab is expected to achieve double-digit EBITDA growth in 2025 and 2026. -
Leverage Targets
Q: What are the post-separation leverage targets?
A: The company expects to maintain leverage of 3 to 3.1x in 2025 due to high activity in inpatient rehab. They plan to reduce leverage significantly in 2026 and beyond. -
Market Confusion Over Concentra
Q: Is consensus including Concentra numbers, causing confusion?
A: Yes, there's significant confusion as many have not removed Concentra from consensus estimates. Concentra's annual revenue of $7.087 billion exceeds consensus by 8%, and EBITDA of $887.4 million exceeds consensus by 6%. -
30% Bed Expansion
Q: How will the 30% increase in beds affect results?
A: With over a 30% increase in beds over the next 18 months , start-up losses are impacting inpatient rehab margins in 2025. Due to the quick maturation of facilities, significant double-digit EBITDA growth is expected in 2026 and 2027. -
Managing Reimbursement Changes
Q: How are you handling Medicare outlier threshold increases?
A: Despite significant increases in the high-cost outlier threshold from 2023 to 2025, operators have done a tremendous job managing through it. Margins in the LTAC segment are expected to remain relatively flat. -
Outpatient Rehab Growth
Q: What's driving growth in outpatient rehab EBITDA?
A: Increased net revenue per visit from $100 to $102 due to commercial contract negotiations , and improved clinical productivity from new technology rolled out in January, are driving expected double-digit EBITDA growth in 2025. -
IRF Margin Impact
Q: Why were inpatient rehab margins lower this quarter?
A: Margins decreased due to suppressed census from Hurricane Helene affecting a referral source. Along with start-up losses and acquisition integration costs, this contributed to the year-over-year margin decline. Census is back to normal in 2025. -
2025 Margin Outlook
Q: Is IRF driving consolidated margin decline in 2025?
A: Yes, the slight decline in consolidated EBITDA margin in 2025 is primarily due to start-up losses in inpatient rehab. IRF margins are expected to decline about 20 basis points compared to 2024.
Research analysts covering SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS.